A New Image

I took a risk assessment course at work a couple of weeks ago. It was very interesting. We looked at various things that could happen, what the chances were that they would happen, and what the probable consequences would be if they did. We looked into how irrational many of our fears are, and how those fears can prevent us from accomplishing our goals. When you get down to brass tacks, almost all of us will die - statistically speaking - from one of three natural causes: heart attack, stroke, or cancer; and most of us will be old when that happens. The next three - which were an order of magnitude less likely to happen - were car accident, falling down, and getting shot. After those top six, the probabilities get very small. Some events - like a nuclear explosion - are such remote possibilities that allowing them to influence the way we live our lives would be plain silly. And yet, who among us hasn't thought that such an event could happen? What are the chances? And if it does happen, what are the chances it will effect you? That's what risk assessment is all about. If you are young, and you want to live to be old, your best strategy is to stay away from automobiles. Beyond that, your chances for survival are pretty good.

For parents of young children, it may surprise you to hear that the chances of your child being abducted today aren't any higher - statistically speaking - than they've ever been. The perception that the chances are higher is probably a result of more media coverage, but it is not born out by the numbers.

There was one risk which I found fascinating: an asteroid hitting the earth. The probability of the event happening is about as close to zero as you can get. There are always people saying the event could happen - or even that it will happen - but in reality, the probability is still as close to zero as you can get. The problem lies in the consequences: if an asteroid does hit the earth, then everyone could die. It really skews risk equations, but it doesn't change the fact that the risk is so remote you shouldn't allow it to effect the way you live your life.

After that course, I placed a photo on my desktop of a giant asteroid hurtling to earth. Each time I logged on or closed a program I would see that picture of an asteroid coming to destroy the planet. After a few days, I had to change the picture because that image was starting to bother me - even though I knew that the event couldn't happen. Irrational fears can be difficult to overcome. But I did learn something useful from that exercise: You can influence your mood by the picture you place on your desktop. Now, twice a week, I put a new image on my desktop - and I'm a lot more careful about what I choose.